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      01-30-2008, 08:10 PM   #23
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You have been listening to Hillarys camp a little too much... Our economy is fine we have not had a decline in GDP yet, we have not met the definition of an economic downturn aka recession. Employment is economically speaking full right now, yes growth has slowed a little but it still has not hit negative numbers.

Right nows a great time to invest or buy a house if you have the money, you are getting that great 10% discount which will continue to grow in some parts of the market such as housing. Right now I am about to buy a house and I figure I can get a 15% discount but I am waiting till mid Feb for a 20% discount. As for investments I have some cash waiting to go in once it hits my buy price which in most cases is 10% bellow current value.. Buy low today and hold and you will be very well off in 5 years++++, investing in the short term is never a great option and can be likened to gambling.

As for the US $$ yes its weak but weak because of speculation and this only help the US in regards to exports, we are not exporting more thus attracting more investment which will bring our USD back, if things turn out like Hillarys camp says then the entire world will drop into a depression and we will all die from global warming.
Our economy is NOT fine. We are staying afloat by borrowing money from China and printing money out of thin air. The economy will collapse at sometime if these trends continue. The FED is obviously concerned as they have cut interest rates twice in a 9 day period which is RARE. Unfortunately, these are artificially low interest rates which is where our problem begins. You can only lower interest rates by increasing the money supply which leads to inflation and a further devaluing of the dollar. This cycle of borrowing money from Asia, artificially lowering interest rates, and printing money is cleary a backwards monetary policy. The Federal Reserve System is a joke; your money is being stolen as the dollar continues to weaken. All paper currencies are vunerable to collapse, and our dollar is no exception.
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      01-30-2008, 08:18 PM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobby_Light View Post
Our economy is NOT fine. We are staying afloat by borrowing money from China and printing money out of thin air. The economy will collapse at sometime if these trends continue. The FED is obviously concerned as they have cut interest rates twice in a 9 day period which is RARE. Unfortunately, these are artificially low interest rates which is where our problem begins. You can only lower interest rates by increasing the money supply which leads to inflation and a further devaluing of the dollar. This cycle of borrowing money from Asia, artificially lowering interest rates, and printing money is cleary a backwards monetary policy. The Federal Reserve System is a joke; your money is being stolen as the dollar continues to weaken. All paper currencies are vunerable to collapse, and our dollar is no exception.
Nice to se some clear speaking there. Thats what we are reading over here.
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      01-30-2008, 09:43 PM   #25
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Our economy is NOT fine. We are staying afloat by borrowing money from China and printing money out of thin air. The economy will collapse at sometime if these trends continue. The FED is obviously concerned as they have cut interest rates twice in a 9 day period which is RARE. Unfortunately, these are artificially low interest rates which is where our problem begins. You can only lower interest rates by increasing the money supply which leads to inflation and a further devaluing of the dollar. This cycle of borrowing money from Asia, artificially lowering interest rates, and printing money is cleary a backwards monetary policy. The Federal Reserve System is a joke; your money is being stolen as the dollar continues to weaken. All paper currencies are vunerable to collapse, and our dollar is no exception.
If we collapse then the entire world does.. We live in a world economy and it wont happen. The old China is buying our debt is a little overplayed, I would be more worried about Japan that owns 25 times more US debt than China. Ask yourself why other countries would buy our debt, its simple despite the up and downs in the long run we have always prevailed. Most experts cant tell you why the dollar has fallen instead they point to speculation. And again like I outlined a falling dollar is not a bad thing, it creates more jobs and promotes outside investment in our country which will eventually bring it back.

My point is all economies have ups and downs and in the long run everything is fine.. Heck our GDP growth is only slowing people it has not been negative for the past 7 years, no need to panic.. We still have around 5% unemployment which is the lowest it has been for a long time, and for economic types 5% is considered full employment.

I am and everyone else shouldn't be afraid to invest in the USA, As one news story put it is "recession contagious no but fear is." Like the falling dollar and rising oil price it all comes back to fear.
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      01-31-2008, 12:03 AM   #26
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This is not fear. This is reality. Americans are real arrogant when it comes to alot of things. The insurmountable strength of the dollar seems to be one. Standard of living will go down and then people will finally start to realize the situation we're in.

I understand your point about a world economy, but the US is literally going bankrupt. We cannot pay back our debt. The world markets are not as confident in the dollar as in the past. I don't really like the idea of foreign interests owning american assets.

A telling video
http://www.forbes.com/markets/2008/0...markets12.html

GDP not looking good. Employment does.
http://www.forbes.com/markets/2008/0...markets12.html

Don't want to hijack a thread. Economy discussion over. Back to getting started with stocks.
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      01-31-2008, 02:44 AM   #27
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Economist, the only job that two different points of view are equally right. Again nothing to panic, think of GDP as meeting earnings we fell short of the predicted but we are still not in the negative..

Like I said now is a good time to invest, and from February to April will be a great time to buy a house if you have money. (I wouldnt buy a house for investment only if you need it, I have no doubt the stock market will outperform investing in a house for the next 5 years)
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      01-31-2008, 07:17 AM   #28
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Both Europe and Asia is safe this time. We are not connected to the american economic situation. I also just read that asia will bennefit from the crises in US. You will import more course there will be a demand for cheaper items. Both China and India increase their production.
The Euro is to strong now and will not shake. In the old days we leaned on the USD. But then we all had seperat valuta.
Lets se how it will work out. We do have crises in the industri as well. Came almost over night. But noone is hurt by now. After all. It was a disaster that we did not have the workers we needed when things went to well.
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      01-31-2008, 02:45 PM   #29
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Both Europe and Asia is safe this time. We are not connected to the american economic situation. I also just read that asia will bennefit from the crises in US. You will import more course there will be a demand for cheaper items. Both China and India increase their production.
The Euro is to strong now and will not shake. In the old days we leaned on the USD. But then we all had seperat valuta.
Lets se how it will work out. We do have crises in the industri as well. Came almost over night. But noone is hurt by now. After all. It was a disaster that we did not have the workers we needed when things went to well.
We live a in world economy, no one is safe but north korea. And yes you are directly connected to the American economy, right now we are exporting more to Europe and Europe is producing less now since its cheaper to buy American goods with the weak dollar. So in a while Europes unemployment rate will be higher, but most of Europe is used to 5%+ unemployment anyways.

Spain is at 14% unemployment
UK is at 5.5%
France 9.5%
Italy 11%
ect

Just wait and see, the rate will go up. Just like it did in the USA when it became cheaper to buy products such as fabric form Asia the USA lost all its jobs in fabric production. Most Euro and Asian companies are investing heavily in the USA& Canada since its cheaper than their home country.

So outside of the USA most countries dont have room to talk about a "bad" economy which the USA is not in, yes slowing from 4.x % GDP down to .6% GDP is still a fall but positive is better than any negative.
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      01-31-2008, 04:44 PM   #30
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We will let time tell then and sure hope for the best.
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      01-31-2008, 06:47 PM   #31
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I've been active in the markets professionally for 17 years, so I think I can give you some guidance. I attached a picture of my trading system below for kicks.....

Okay I posted the link before, and I'll do it again: www.investors.com

Sign-up and read it every day. Get William O'Neill's books and read them. They're very easy reading. The stocks they like are typically more volatile than most stocks, meaning in good markets they go up faster, and in bad markets, they go down faster.

DO NOT WATCH CNBC or any of that crap. They're idiots, they've turned the stock market into entertainment, and they're wrong most the time. All the guests they have on, have some reason for saying what they say, and I can guarantee you it's more for their benefit than yours. (I know, in the picture I have CNBC on the TV, but I promise you it's muted)

If you're REALLY serious, learn how to analyze stock charts. To do this, I would start by reading a book called "Technical Analysis Explained", by Martin Pring. If you do have an interest in charts, you need some software. You might want to look at www.highgrowthstock.com, they offer a pretty good analysis package, and if you learn their way of doing it, you'll be way ahead. They pretty much use the same system that you'll learn about by reading O'Neill's books. I don't like their charting, though.

For a better charting package look at MetaStock (www.equis.com). Their software's a bit expensive at first, but the daily updates are pretty cheap. Go with end-of-day data to start with.

Once you know what you're doing, and if you want to be an active trader, you need to go with TradeStation (www.tradestation.com), they are for active traders, but they have the best charting system out there. IT IS GREAT! But that's for when you get good. DO NOT START HERE.

In a nutshell, here's what I would recommend:
1. Subscribe to Investors Business Daily (www.investors.com). Go w/ the online version or the print version, it's up to you.
2. Read William O'Neill's books, they may offer a free book when you sign up with Investors Business Daily. William O'Neill founded IBD.
3. If you're still interested sign-up with HighGrowthStock.
4. Read Martin Pring's book.
5. If you want better charting software, get the MetaStock program.
6. Once you're REALLY good - maybe in a year or two, or three, sign-up with TradeStation.

Let me end with this. Learn how to do this on your own. Put the time in to learn and get good at it. You will lose money, especially at first, but hang in there, you'll eventually start making money. I would recommend paper trading for awhile to start with before you put your hard earned money into it. Most importantly DO NOT LISTEN TO BROKERS!! They have no idea what they're doing. THEY ARE SALESMEN. Believe me I KNOW THIS. I have worked at two of the biggest investment firms in the world.

Please don't fall into the BS trap of these online boards with these guys that are saying you should be buying some crap stock for $1.12, because the company has figured out how to turn pig farts into electricity and the stock will be $100 w/in a year. It's called Pump 'n Dump. They buy some crap stock and then get online and spread rumors about it, then dump it when the price jumps. It's illegal. And you'll get burned.

If you have any questions, feel free to ask me. Good luck - you're gonna need it, just kidding.
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      01-31-2008, 07:04 PM   #32
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In DK we have some systems where you can try it for free. Of course you wont win real money - but you wont loose either.
Its fun and you can se if you are good at it. And when you feel ready. You can turn it to real money (have to start over then of course)
I have seen real amaturs win over pro here.
donno if you have such systems over there.
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