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08-26-2022, 03:23 PM | #7130 |
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Powell states the obvious and people + algorithms freak out.
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08-26-2022, 10:44 PM | #7132 |
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08-26-2022, 11:11 PM | #7133 |
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08-26-2022, 11:15 PM | #7134 |
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08-26-2022, 11:56 PM | #7135 |
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I'm long. I don't day trade or anything except for my failed options trades. Seems like it was a good entry point
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08-27-2022, 12:10 AM | #7136 | |
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It was painful and i swear to myself that i do not want to experience it again. That i will sell while i am still near top, and with aapl now at $163, down ~$10 from the high this month at $173, i think i am ready to sell if monday goes lower again. Could have sold yesterday at $170, but with the stock ended up really strong, I didn’t expect it would go this low today. Worst case scenario, if i sell near top, if it bounced, i can still buy again at near the price i sold. |
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08-27-2022, 05:31 AM | #7137 | ||||
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08-27-2022, 07:27 AM | #7139 |
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Right. Expectations of the hikes moderating and then ending imminently, followed by cuts soon thereafter, are exactly what you called it - an alternative reality. Zero or near zero percent rates is not a normal state even though it may have seemed that way for a long time. Much volatility ahead.
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08-27-2022, 07:58 AM | #7140 |
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I don’t get what you mean. Now aapl is at $163. The highs was $173 a week ago (not all time high as ATH was earlier this year). I can say $10 off the $173 near the top. Yesterday was $170, which could have been better spot to sell, but oh well…
I am small player. I don’t have hundred shares so i rather sell and secure cash. I could have buy put as insurance but put requires 100 shares per lot. |
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08-27-2022, 10:04 AM | #7141 | |
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In the near term both the IRA and the student loan forgiveness are inflationary. The resumptions of payments on remaining loans will be non-inflationary. So on balance not sure how the FED will handle those, but it might give them impetus for an extra 25bps. |
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08-27-2022, 10:12 AM | #7142 | |
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08-27-2022, 10:42 AM | #7144 | |
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I think they will continue to unwind QE and ride rates up to 4% or higher and hang there for quite a while unless there is a severe recession. I do think after September, they will be able to pull back on the level and frequency of hikes, but won’t let up entirely until inflation appears settled back down close to 2%.
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08-27-2022, 10:50 AM | #7145 |
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Even if that were possible, it’s a double-edged sword because the administration’s policies have already fueled inflation to some extent and now there is the loan forgiveness and deferrals on top of it. A lot of people hurt by inflation didn’t go to college and didn’t get any of their debts forgiven. Looking soft on inflation to juice the stock market could have unintended political consequences.
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08-27-2022, 11:14 AM | #7146 |
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Inflation is on its way out. The foot came off the inflation gas pedal at the end of 2021. The economy requires several quarters to respond; the response is unfolding now.
I am lining up buys for new money. Target timing for the first buy is near the next Fed announcement. Cash heavy, or high liquidity percentage, is a good strategy for the long term. Cash is not always trash. On the contrary, cash is flexibility and a volatility offset. |
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08-27-2022, 11:36 AM | #7147 | |
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08-27-2022, 12:55 PM | #7148 |
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Not necessarily, just uncertainty and potential for downside. If the market dives the days prior to the announcement, in my view this would be an overreaction and I would consider buying my target names. Or not.
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08-27-2022, 03:42 PM | #7149 | ||
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08-28-2022, 06:03 AM | #7150 | |
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Kind of hard to know it's a top in the moment. |
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