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      04-19-2014, 11:19 AM   #309
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Originally Posted by dtwyim View Post
Nice.

With the new GMT Pepsi only available in WG, yours will certainly keep its value if not keep on going up.
My thoughts exactly!

I traded a NIB Sub Hulk that seems to be depreciating more and more (since they still make it) and got this one on the up swing. It is in really good shape and looks like its hardly been worn at all.
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      04-19-2014, 01:00 PM   #310
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Originally Posted by dtwyim View Post
Nice.

With the new GMT Pepsi only available in WG, yours will certainly keep its value if not keep on going up.
Are certain brands of watches really surefire investments as so many on this forum make them out to be? Brands like Rolex (possibly because of mass appeal) or Patek (possibly because of rarity)? If we purchased a ~$100k Patek right now and never wore it, what's a reasonable rate of return over 5 or 10 years? Is this true for all Rolexes and Pateks or do you have to be lucky? As a general rule of thumb, does average rate of return go up proportionally with purchase price?

Anyone have any data on this kind of thing? We don't care about wearing watches, but if they're actually decent investments then we wouldn't be opposed to diversifying a little.
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      04-19-2014, 04:49 PM   #311
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Originally Posted by NemesisX View Post
Are certain brands of watches really surefire investments as so many on this forum make them out to be? Brands like Rolex (possibly because of mass appeal) or Patek (possibly because of rarity)? If we purchased a ~$100k Patek right now and never wore it, what's a reasonable rate of return over 5 or 10 years? Is this true for all Rolexes and Pateks or do you have to be lucky? As a general rule of thumb, does average rate of return go up proportionally with purchase price?

Anyone have any data on this kind of thing? We don't care about wearing watches, but if they're actually decent investments then we wouldn't be opposed to diversifying a little.
I personally do not buy watches as investment. IMO, take the $ and invest it somewhere else. I buy them for personal enjoyment. Just like cars, you lose more if you buy new.

AFAIK, Rolex do 'hold' their values better.

Here is an example of selling a PP. Supply and demand. Rarity helps.

http://blog.perpetuelle.com/special-...0-in-platinum/

Maybe someone else with more experience trading watches can chime in.
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      04-19-2014, 08:04 PM   #312
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Originally Posted by NemesisX View Post
Are certain brands of watches really surefire investments as so many on this forum make them out to be? Brands like Rolex (possibly because of mass appeal) or Patek (possibly because of rarity)? If we purchased a ~$100k Patek right now and never wore it, what's a reasonable rate of return over 5 or 10 years? Is this true for all Rolexes and Pateks or do you have to be lucky? As a general rule of thumb, does average rate of return go up proportionally with purchase price?

Anyone have any data on this kind of thing? We don't care about wearing watches, but if they're actually decent investments then we wouldn't be opposed to diversifying a little.
First, let me be clear. An investment is something you buy that you expect will appreciate in value. Most every watch one can buy -- at least the ones folks on here are mostly discussing -- are all but guaranteed to lose value from the day they are purchased. Period.

Certain brands lose value more slowly than others, Rolex and Patek being the two mainstream ones that lose value slowly. Certain specific watches will also lose value more or less as slowly as Rolex and Patek, but the watches for which that applies are pretty esoteric and rarefied. They also tend to be very expensive, although some of them are only somewhat expensive as are Rolexes and some Pateks.

There is one other "category" of watches that do appreciate in value almost from the day the are purchased. Those watches tend to have something special about them that transcends the intrinsic qualities of the items themselves.

For example a P. Dufour watch could quite likely be purchased today and sold tomorrow at a profit because Mr. Dufour is the person who made it and he makes so very few watches and because he is a great watchmaker. Is he a better watchmaker than the men and women who toil away in Patek's factory or are his watches going to perform better than those, or even better than a typical Grand Seiko? "No" is the answer to both questions, but he's not toiling in Patek's or Seiko's factory; he's doing the work under his own name and his creations are his alone. It's the bespoke aspect of his watches that lends them cache, and cache is good for keeping values escalating.

Another example would be a watch owned by someone noteworthy. The thoroughly run of the mill watch that President Obama was given at the start of his first term, a Jorg Grey, instantly increased in value just because the President of the U.S. owned and wore it. Jorg Grey watches other than that one are just like it and their value's movement is identical to that of a rock thrown in a lake.

Outside of those very limited sorts of watches, all the rest of them are going to lose a lot of value before they have any hope of actually gaining value.

One thing to be cautious about is a false sense of value retention. For example, I have a Patek Philippe Calatrava 3520 I purchased some 25 years ago for about $12K. When PP stopped making them, the last retail price for them was about $25K. That watch can be purchased used today for anywhere between $9K to $12K. I saw one of effectively the same vintage as mine offered for sale at $10K and another for $12.5K. The thing is that my $12K from 25 years ago would buy more than $12K today. So really, my watch still isn't worth as much as I paid for it; it just seems like it is because the numbers in the price tag are the same.

All the best.
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      04-19-2014, 10:56 PM   #313
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tony20009 View Post
First, let me be clear. An investment is something you buy that you expect will appreciate in value. Most every watch one can buy -- at least the ones folks on here are mostly discussing -- are all but guaranteed to lose value from the day they are purchased. Period.

Certain brands lose value more slowly than others, Rolex and Patek being the two mainstream ones that lose value slowly. Certain specific watches will also lose value more or less as slowly as Rolex and Patek, but the watches for which that applies are pretty esoteric and rarefied. They also tend to be very expensive, although some of them are only somewhat expensive as are Rolexes and some Pateks.

There is one other "category" of watches that do appreciate in value almost from the day the are purchased. Those watches tend to have something special about them that transcends the intrinsic qualities of the items themselves.

For example a P. Dufour watch could quite likely be purchased today and sold tomorrow at a profit because Mr. Dufour is the person who made it and he makes so very few watches and because he is a great watchmaker. Is he a better watchmaker than the men and women who toil away in Patek's factory or are his watches going to perform better than those, or even better than a typical Grand Seiko? "No" is the answer to both questions, but he's not toiling in Patek's or Seiko's factory; he's doing the work under his own name and his creations are his alone. It's the bespoke aspect of his watches that lends them cache, and cache is good for keeping values escalating.

Another example would be a watch owned by someone noteworthy. The throughly run of the mill watch that President Obama was given at the start of his first term, a Jorg Grey, instantly increased in value just because the President of the U.S. owned and wore it. Jorg Grey watches other than that one are just like it and their value's movement is identical to that of a rock thrown in a lake.

Outside of those very limited sorts of watches, all the rest of them are going to lose a lot of value before they have any hope of actually gaining value.

One thing to be cautious about is a false sense of value retention. For example, I have a Patek Philippe Calatrava 3520 I purchased some 25 years ago for about $12K. When PP stopped making them, the last retail price for them was about $25K. That watch can be purchased used today for anywhere between $9K to $12K. I saw one of effectively the same vintage as mine offered for sale at $10K and another for $12.5K. The thing is that my $12K from 25 years ago would buy more than $12K today. So really, my watch still isn't worth as much as I paid for it; it just seems like it is because the numbers in the price tag are the same.

All the best.
Excellent insight as always This post is really informative. Your specific example regarding your Calatrava 3520 is really useful. Just as a rough estimate $12k 25 years ago is something like $20k-$25k today, taking inflation into account, so I suppose in some sense that watch has retained about 50% of its value which is not too bad but it's clearly not grade A investment material either.
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      04-20-2014, 06:34 PM   #314
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Thank you for this post. Finally someone clears the air.

People need to stop fooling themselves into thinking that their $8-10k Rolex is an investment of any sort. It's a slowly depreciating jewelry that should be enjoyed.

Quote:
Originally Posted by tony20009 View Post
First, let me be clear. An investment is something you buy that you expect will appreciate in value. Most every watch one can buy -- at least the ones folks on here are mostly discussing -- are all but guaranteed to lose value from the day they are purchased. Period.

Certain brands lose value more slowly than others, Rolex and Patek being the two mainstream ones that lose value slowly. Certain specific watches will also lose value more or less as slowly as Rolex and Patek, but the watches for which that applies are pretty esoteric and rarefied. They also tend to be very expensive, although some of them are only somewhat expensive as are Rolexes and some Pateks.

There is one other "category" of watches that do appreciate in value almost from the day the are purchased. Those watches tend to have something special about them that transcends the intrinsic qualities of the items themselves.

For example a P. Dufour watch could quite likely be purchased today and sold tomorrow at a profit because Mr. Dufour is the person who made it and he makes so very few watches and because he is a great watchmaker. Is he a better watchmaker than the men and women who toil away in Patek's factory or are his watches going to perform better than those, or even better than a typical Grand Seiko? "No" is the answer to both questions, but he's not toiling in Patek's or Seiko's factory; he's doing the work under his own name and his creations are his alone. It's the bespoke aspect of his watches that lends them cache, and cache is good for keeping values escalating.

Another example would be a watch owned by someone noteworthy. The throughly run of the mill watch that President Obama was given at the start of his first term, a Jorg Grey, instantly increased in value just because the President of the U.S. owned and wore it. Jorg Grey watches other than that one are just like it and their value's movement is identical to that of a rock thrown in a lake.

Outside of those very limited sorts of watches, all the rest of them are going to lose a lot of value before they have any hope of actually gaining value.

One thing to be cautious about is a false sense of value retention. For example, I have a Patek Philippe Calatrava 3520 I purchased some 25 years ago for about $12K. When PP stopped making them, the last retail price for them was about $25K. That watch can be purchased used today for anywhere between $9K to $12K. I saw one of effectively the same vintage as mine offered for sale at $10K and another for $12.5K. The thing is that my $12K from 25 years ago would buy more than $12K today. So really, my watch still isn't worth as much as I paid for it; it just seems like it is because the numbers in the price tag are the same.

All the best.
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      04-21-2014, 08:17 AM   #315
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tony20009 View Post
First, let me be clear. An investment is something you buy that you expect will appreciate in value. Most every watch one can buy -- at least the ones folks on here are mostly discussing -- are all but guaranteed to lose value from the day they are purchased. Period.

Certain brands lose value more slowly than others, Rolex and Patek being the two mainstream ones that lose value slowly. Certain specific watches will also lose value more or less as slowly as Rolex and Patek, but the watches for which that applies are pretty esoteric and rarefied. They also tend to be very expensive, although some of them are only somewhat expensive as are Rolexes and some Pateks.

There is one other "category" of watches that do appreciate in value almost from the day the are purchased. Those watches tend to have something special about them that transcends the intrinsic qualities of the items themselves.

For example a P. Dufour watch could quite likely be purchased today and sold tomorrow at a profit because Mr. Dufour is the person who made it and he makes so very few watches and because he is a great watchmaker. Is he a better watchmaker than the men and women who toil away in Patek's factory or are his watches going to perform better than those, or even better than a typical Grand Seiko? "No" is the answer to both questions, but he's not toiling in Patek's or Seiko's factory; he's doing the work under his own name and his creations are his alone. It's the bespoke aspect of his watches that lends them cache, and cache is good for keeping values escalating.

Another example would be a watch owned by someone noteworthy. The thoroughly run of the mill watch that President Obama was given at the start of his first term, a Jorg Grey, instantly increased in value just because the President of the U.S. owned and wore it. Jorg Grey watches other than that one are just like it and their value's movement is identical to that of a rock thrown in a lake.

Outside of those very limited sorts of watches, all the rest of them are going to lose a lot of value before they have any hope of actually gaining value.

One thing to be cautious about is a false sense of value retention. For example, I have a Patek Philippe Calatrava 3520 I purchased some 25 years ago for about $12K. When PP stopped making them, the last retail price for them was about $25K. That watch can be purchased used today for anywhere between $9K to $12K. I saw one of effectively the same vintage as mine offered for sale at $10K and another for $12.5K. The thing is that my $12K from 25 years ago would buy more than $12K today. So really, my watch still isn't worth as much as I paid for it; it just seems like it is because the numbers in the price tag are the same.

All the best.
Excellent write-up!

It seems most of the Rolex Sport models keep their value better and will eventually appreciate. There are a rare few watches that are made today that will actually be an "investment" unless you buy it at an extremely good price.
At one time, the Daytona SS was a great investment as they always went up shortly after you purchased them. Now they are not as rare and can be acquired much easier. The older rare Daytona's from the '70s (it wasn't a very popular watch) sold for less than $1,000 and are worth from $20-75K now.

You also have to remember, if you take the money that you'd spend on the watch ($8-10K) and actually invested it in some smart, low risk funds - you will more than likely have a greater sum of money after 10 years than what the watch is worth.

In the end, buy what you like and enjoy it. Chances are if you do buy a Rolex and decide to move on eventually, it won't sting your wallet as bad as some other brands. I wore a Rolex Submariner Date for 10 years (it was still in very good shape) and I sold it for an $800 profit. Not too bad for a watch I wore and enjoyed for 10 years.

Here's an idea of how much Rolex's have gone up in value over the years. You can compare the original list price when they were first released to what they're selling for now.

http://www.minus4plus6.com/PriceEvolution.htm
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      04-21-2014, 10:20 AM   #316
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Excellent write-up!

It seems most of the Rolex Sport models keep their value better and will eventually appreciate. There are a rare few watches that are made today that will actually be an "investment" unless you buy it at an extremely good price.

At one time, the Daytona SS was a great investment as they always went up shortly after you purchased them. Now they are not as rare and can be acquired much easier. The older rare Daytona's from the '70s (it wasn't a very popular watch) sold for less than $1,000 and are worth from $20-75K now.

...

Here's an idea of how much Rolex's have gone up in value over the years. You can compare the original list price when they were first released to what they're selling for now.

http://www.minus4plus6.com/PriceEvolution.htm
TY for the kind words.

When I speak of a watch appreciating in value, I'm talking about what a person who owns one can expect to sell it for at some time in the future. I am not talking about retail prices increasing, which is what that "Price Evolution" table shows.

There are collector grade Rolexes that have appreciated in value. "Redline" and "double red" Submariners and the various flavors of "Paul Newman" Daytonas have absolutely appreciated. The Asia-only Submariner Smurf has. Pretty much every commissioned Rolex has. The ones John Cameron had made for his dives are examples of commissioned Rolexes.

The commissioned watches Rolex makes are exactly one of the sorts of watches I said earlier would appreciate in value because they have some trait about them that goes beyond the traits of the watches themselves. I can tell you now that if you or I, unknown as we are, expressly commissioned a limited edition of one (or five, ten or however many you have made to order and exclusively for your own use and purposes) watch from any watchmaker who'd accept the commission, the watch will go up in value. You'll pay through the nose to have such a thing made, but it will get made and it will increase in value. Collectors will pay dearly to get their hands on something that was made in such limited numbers and that is visually distinct from a general production watch.

As for general production Rolexes one can buy as I write this, sure, some of them may go up in value if one waits 80 years for that to happen. If I were actually looking for one that might appreciate, it'd be that platinum-only Cellini Rolex offers. If/when Rolex introduces a new model, if one gets the first serial number for that model, it might appreciate. The rest of them, you and I will be dead -- or close to it -- before they increase in value, and the sole reason they might appreciate is simply that they would by then have antique status.

Here are the details from a Christie's auction where at several of those "Paul Newman" Daytonas were sold: http://www.christies.com/lotfinder/s...w&sortby=ehigh . There's a lot of cache associated with Paul Newman; moreover, the one watch that sold for $1M+ has several unique attributes about it that distinguish it from the more "run of the mill" "Paul Newmans."

All the best.
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      04-21-2014, 06:05 PM   #317
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"their value's movement is identical to that of a rock thrown in a lake."

Too funny!
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      04-23-2014, 01:33 PM   #318
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I picked up my new GMT BLNR on Monday! It is stunning in real life. The bezel looks so cool and the blue is very versatile. It goes well with a suit or jeans no problem.
Sorry for the crappy iPhone pics.

I also put a Hirsch Rally strap on my Daytona as well. I'm trying to channel my inner Paul Newman when I'm racing this weekend! Yes, I actually wear my Daytona when I race. 12 Hour Devil in the Dark at NJMP this Saturday.
It's difficult to see, but I'm wearing my Daytona in the pic below from Mid-Ohio last year.
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