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      07-05-2011, 07:03 PM   #26
scorcherjf
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So what the "big boys" are doing is the correct decision? I'm just curious about predictive power with just looking at graphs... it's great you can say what your 1 prediction was last week that came true, but do you honestly think you know the reasons behind it or are you fitting the story to the history? A chart may tell you a story... but it's also a lot of noise. With your market sentiment and bull/bear explanation it sounds a lot more like guessing at market psychology than technical analysis to me.

When I think of technical analysis I think of a disciplined approach to mathematically analyzing data and building robust indicators. Have you back-tested your SPX minimum or VIX bollinger band strategies? If you can see a significant behavior based on the data then there's something to look into but if you're just pointing out arbitrary times where your indicators forecasted correctly but kind of ignore the times where it hasn't then that's a bit haphazard.
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Originally Posted by mact3333 View Post
You have to look at market delta charts and effective volume charts...they tell you what the big boys are doing...high price range/expansion without volume expansion means its shorts covering and that there is no inherent buying from bulls...2-3 wks ago when bears were salivating I was here telling people to go long...when bearish sentiment reaches extremes and you see a certain % breached on % of stocks trading over 50 day moving avg, that tells you all the bulls have capitulated and there are no more bears to bring it down...hence you get buying pressure...each chart tells a story, youre job is to figure it out on your own with some guidance of course.
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