Quote:
Originally Posted by chad86tsi
In 2012 a Chevy volt cost ~$40,000.
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How much did it cost to replace the battery in 2012?
Quote:
Originally Posted by chad86tsi
In 2022 a replacement EV battery for that same Chevy volt is $30,000. Do you think they put a $30,000 battery in a $10,000 car, or does the battery cost more now than it did before?
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Components often cost more to put them in or swap after the car leaves the factory. When the battery is installed in the factory, the car is in pieces, perhaps even as early as only being a frame and on an assembly line, which cuts costs significantly.
Quote:
Originally Posted by chad86tsi
I dug up an old article from 2012 on this very subject, they concluded the Chevy Volt battery was $12,000 in 2012. in 2022 it's $30,000, or 250% more.
A 2010 National Academy of Sciences report estimated pack costs then at $625 to $850 per kilowatt-hour.
So where does that take us? If we assume that the 2011 Chevrolet Volt's 16-kWh pack cost roughly $750 per kilowatt-hour (or about $12,000), then we can project the two rates of decline.
At 6 percent a year, the same pack in 2020 would cost just $430/kWh, or $6,500 in total. At 8 percent, it would be even cheaper, at $354/kWh or $5,200 altogether.
https://www.greencarreports.com/news...ery-costs-fall |
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...id/7935230001/
The battery was out of production and had to be purchased from a 3rd party.
I addressed the issue of legacy parts here:
Quote:
Originally Posted by jmg
The 90% I quoted was for the cost of manufacturing a new battery based on several articles I read. Like I mentioned in my previous post, that does not mean that's how much it would cost to replace an old battery, which includes ancillary charges for labor and parts etc. Additionally, this is a legacy part. Perhaps the newer batteries are, in fact, cheaper, but this one isn't because it's an older battery?
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What we are actually comparing is cost per kw hour to make a new battery, not source a legacy part with older technology, hamstrung by supply and cost to manufacture at older standards.
Quote:
Originally Posted by chad86tsi
Please note, they were predicting this battery would be less than $5000 in 2022 using their 8% figure, which clearly it is not. In 2012 they shared your optimism, and they were wrong.
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This article claims the current cost to produce a new EV battery is $128 per kilowatt-hour.
That article you posted predicted for 2020, it's now 2021 and we are at $128/kwh. Additionally, adjusted for inflation, the $750/kwh in 2012 dollars is actually $967/kwh in 2022 dollars.
That's an 87% drop in price per kwh.
Quote:
Originally Posted by chad86tsi
There are other examples, I even referenced one where a customer was quoted more for a Polestar 2 battery than the MSRP of the entire Polestar 2 when new.
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Again, it's cheaper on the assembly line than at a mechanic. What is the capacity of the Polestar 2 and how much was the cost to replace the battery per kwh? Did it include labor? Take that kwh and compare it to $967 per kilowatt-hour that we calculated above.
To clarify, I'm no expert in this. I'm just taking what's available and doing the math. I might get the math wrong once and awhile, or I misread/didn't read completely, but I'll own up to it and attempt to fix it. I'm open to accepting that batteries cost more now per kwh than a decade ago, but I simply haven't seen anything yet to indicate that. I spend my time in threads like these because they tend to become echo chambers and people need to know that we don't have to take everything at face value. Even going down this route with conflicting numbers, it proves that the issue is actually more complicated than it appears. So whether I'm being the devil's advocate or truely believe that the EV will save the world, it doesn't matter. It only matters that we not all think the same, and we don't have to.