Quote:
Originally Posted by tony20009
First, let me be clear. An investment is something you buy that you expect will appreciate in value. Most every watch one can buy -- at least the ones folks on here are mostly discussing -- are all but guaranteed to lose value from the day they are purchased. Period.
Certain brands lose value more slowly than others, Rolex and Patek being the two mainstream ones that lose value slowly. Certain specific watches will also lose value more or less as slowly as Rolex and Patek, but the watches for which that applies are pretty esoteric and rarefied. They also tend to be very expensive, although some of them are only somewhat expensive as are Rolexes and some Pateks.
There is one other "category" of watches that do appreciate in value almost from the day the are purchased. Those watches tend to have something special about them that transcends the intrinsic qualities of the items themselves.
For example a P. Dufour watch could quite likely be purchased today and sold tomorrow at a profit because Mr. Dufour is the person who made it and he makes so very few watches and because he is a great watchmaker. Is he a better watchmaker than the men and women who toil away in Patek's factory or are his watches going to perform better than those, or even better than a typical Grand Seiko? "No" is the answer to both questions, but he's not toiling in Patek's or Seiko's factory; he's doing the work under his own name and his creations are his alone. It's the bespoke aspect of his watches that lends them cache, and cache is good for keeping values escalating.
Another example would be a watch owned by someone noteworthy. The thoroughly run of the mill watch that President Obama was given at the start of his first term, a Jorg Grey, instantly increased in value just because the President of the U.S. owned and wore it. Jorg Grey watches other than that one are just like it and their value's movement is identical to that of a rock thrown in a lake.
Outside of those very limited sorts of watches, all the rest of them are going to lose a lot of value before they have any hope of actually gaining value.
One thing to be cautious about is a false sense of value retention. For example, I have a Patek Philippe Calatrava 3520 I purchased some 25 years ago for about $12K. When PP stopped making them, the last retail price for them was about $25K. That watch can be purchased used today for anywhere between $9K to $12K. I saw one of effectively the same vintage as mine offered for sale at $10K and another for $12.5K. The thing is that my $12K from 25 years ago would buy more than $12K today. So really, my watch still isn't worth as much as I paid for it; it just seems like it is because the numbers in the price tag are the same.
All the best.
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Excellent write-up!
It seems most of the Rolex Sport models keep their value better and will eventually appreciate. There are a rare few watches that are made today that will actually be an "investment" unless you buy it at an extremely good price.
At one time, the Daytona SS was a great investment as they always went up shortly after you purchased them. Now they are not as rare and can be acquired much easier. The older rare Daytona's from the '70s (it wasn't a very popular watch) sold for less than $1,000 and are worth from $20-75K now.
You also have to remember, if you take the money that you'd spend on the watch ($8-10K) and actually invested it in some smart, low risk funds - you will more than likely have a greater sum of money after 10 years than what the watch is worth.
In the end, buy what you like and enjoy it. Chances are if you do buy a Rolex and decide to move on eventually, it won't sting your wallet as bad as some other brands. I wore a Rolex Submariner Date for 10 years (it was still in very good shape) and I sold it for an $800 profit. Not too bad for a watch I wore and enjoyed for 10 years.
Here's an idea of how much Rolex's have gone up in value over the years. You can compare the original list price when they were first released to what they're selling for now.
http://www.minus4plus6.com/PriceEvolution.htm